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Prove the Pollsters Wrong

This is the post excerpt.

Black, Hispanic and young citizens can shake up the polling world, send pollsters back to their analytical drawing boards and leave many political prognosticators scratching their heads. Along the way, they can not only put Secretary Clinton into the White House with a clear governing mandate, they can give democrats a majority in the United States Senate that fundamentally transforms the Supreme Court for a generation and American society beyond the foreseeable future.

Chickens Come Home to Roost

Throughout this fetid garbage bag of an election season, republicans have been clutching the proverbial pearls over the odious brand of populism offered by their presidential election standard-bearer, Donald Trump. Indeed, dozens of republicans who truly believe in putting America first have decided either to sit out the presidential race, vote for a third-party candidate or vote for Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton. If traditional democratic voters go to the polls in numbers that even approach those reached in 2012, their votes, combined with those of republicans who actually give a damn about America’s future, could send Secretary Clinton into the White House by a landslide in spite of the FBI Director’s blatant attempt to swing the election to Trump. But regardless of whether or not Secretary Clinton is victorious next week, republican leaders would do well to engage in some serious introspection regarding their role in getting us to where we are today. A full 40% of American voters are drinking Donald Trump’s toxic cocktail of bigotry and fear mongering. Though they would not admit it, such a combination highlights both the core of republican political appeals over the last half century and the abject failure of their plutocratic, special interest policy agenda in improving the lot of America’s working class.

President Obama argues that eight years of mindless, reflexive obstruction, reckless brinksmanship and tolerance if not encouragement of vituperative political rhetoric helped to create the Trump candidacy. We here at WokeCitizen believe that the unprecedented treatment of America’s first president of color represents merely the crescendo of cynical, Southern Strategy-style politics and that the chickens of ignorance and bigotry now roosting in the GOP have been on their way home for quite some time. From President Nixon’s initiation of the horribly failed “War on Drugs”, to President Reagan’s states’ rights speech in the county where civil rights workers were murdered and buried in an earthen dam, to President George H.W. Bush’s “Willie Horton” ads, to Mitt Romney’s assertion that delegates at the NAACP were looking for “free stuff”, to dozens if not hundreds of well-documented demonstrations of racially hostile rhetoric and policy actions in between, republican candidates have sought ballot-box success through cynical appeals to resentment of the proverbial “other”. Much of the time, such highlighting of unattractive otherness has been based on race. Is it any wonder that the current republican nominee seeks office in part through the vilification of Muslims and Mexican immigrants and the promise to protect white people from them?

Throughout this history, republicans have advanced an economic ideology that victimized working class people of all races even as working class whites continued to harken to their siren song of racial animus. As company after company decided that it was in the best interest of the shareholder to move jobs from the industrial midwest to far-away lands, republicans told white working class Americans that affirmative action was the source of their problems finding well-paying work. When people of color sought unemployment, retraining and other support to recover from devastating plant closures in urban areas, republicans told white working class Americans that those lazy people were looking for handouts, that they should stop having babies out of wedlock, get off their backsides and get to work. White working class Americans bought into this blame game and dutifully voted republicans who would protect them from the predatory other.

While in power, republicans pursued a policy agenda that had little to nothing to do with strengthening America’s working class and many of the most vulnerable members of that working class went right along with it. As investments in technology resulted in an explosion of productivity, the benefits of which rose to the shareholder class as wages stagnated, republicans told white working class Americans that more tax cuts for the wealthy would accelerate business formation and thus jobs. As businesses consolidated into ever-larger corporate behemoths and extracted synergies from “rationalization” of the labor force, republicans told working class white Americans that more deregulation and more privatization would remove the yoke of government from their lives and that the private sector would respond with more jobs at ever-increasing pay. In addition to protecting them from the “others”, white working class American bought into republican promises that the economic benefits of tax cuts, deregulation and government restraint would trickle down to them. Of course the trickle that most working class Americans are feeling on their heads is not the economic benefits of republican policies and after decades of uncritical support, white working class Americans are in full revolt.

Into this mix steps Donald Trump, who gives them the latest set of “others” to resent and who offers a simplistic and simpleminded policy agenda that he has no ability to execute even if he were inclined to do so once in office – except, of course for giving himself and those like him more tax cuts. He has derided trade and economic policies that supposedly drive manufacturing overseas as if the exodus of manufacturing jobs wasn’t already a half-century in the making. What’s more, trump hasn’t demonstrated a single scintilla of concern for working class people of any race for any of his 70 years on earth. He uses foreign-made products in each and every one of his businesses. In short, he is once again playing working class white people for chumps as have every republican candidate before him. The only difference? Trump is making overt appeals to the resentments, the fears, the insecurities and the bigotries of working class whites where many republican candidates before him were only slightly more subtle.

One cannot deny that a huge percentage of the republican base now rejects republican economic policy prescriptions and have embraced a populism that runs completely counter to entrenched republican ideology. As well, one might reasonably argue that if not for a half century of appeals to racial animosity and other flavors of bigotry, much of the current republican base wouldn’t actually be republican. Donald Trump has exposed both how deeply that bigotry has infested the once grand old party and how decidedly out of touch republican policy priorities are with the needs of working class people of all races.

Prove the Pollsters Wrong

This should be so over. Not only does no living former President of the United States – republican or democrat – support his candidacy, two of those former presidents are actively campaigning against him. His opponent and her allies have outspent him and his supporters two to one. Throughout his campaign, he has insulted women, racial and ethnic minorities, non-christians, LGBT persons, veterans, Gold Star Families and the disabled. He has been caught on a live microphone bragging about sexually assaulting women. He has been endorsed by only two of 62 large newspapers that have so far made endorsements for the General Election versus 52 endorsements garnered by his leading opponent. He has demonstrated alarming ignorance regarding most aspects of domestic and foreign policy. His candidacy has been embraced by the most “deplorable” elements of American society and by the authoritarian leadership of Russia and North Korea. The incumbent president, the incumbent vice-president, the current First Lady, and the primary opponent of his general election opponent are all engaged in a level of retail campaigning against him that strikes us here at WokeCitizen as unprecedented. One would think that the poll results for a nominee with the above campaign profile would be fully reflective of his apparent unfitness for office. Yet, surprisingly, Donald Trump remains within striking distance of Secretary Hillary Clinton in some polls of likely voters.

To be sure, some campaign watchers are indeed talking about a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College. Secretary Clinton is tied with Trump or even leading in states (Texas, Arizona, ) that have traditionally voted for the republican nominee. But the RealClearPolitics average of presidential polls has Secretary Clinton ahead by 5.9 points (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html ). This is outside the standard margin of error for most polls, but not by much. Some polls and surveys (Rasmussen, IBD/TPP, LATimes) actually have Trump in the lead. A full 40% of likely voters remain solidly behind Trump. While this number is certainly well short of a majority, his level of voter support still seems large under the circumstances.

One can point to many reasons for this incongruity. Perhaps the level of anger held by working and middle class persons at the Washington establishment and at political and economic elites is real and reflected in poll results. While some establishment republicans have rejected Trump, perhaps economic ideologies behind tax cuts, deregulation and other traditional republican priorities trump (no pun intended) any concerns over the republican nominee’s demonstrated lack of basic human decency. For some, political power is the priority. For others, its political tribalism. Finally, one cannot discount the impact of racism, misogyny, religious ostracism and other forms of bigotry that infest the once Grand Old Party. With a couple of weeks left in this campaign season, not much can be done about any of these political and social dynamics that would assure an election night result reflective of current Clinton-favorable polling. But there are things that each of us can do that speak to what we at WokeCitizen consider to be a fixable shortcoming within the left-of-center coalition relative to modern polling. A shortcoming that has everything to do with the term “Likely Voter”.

Polls of likely voters tend to be more favorable to the republican nominee than polls of registered voters. In a September Washington Post-ABC News poll, Clinton led Trump by 10 points among Registered Voters, but by only half as much among Likely Voters. This difference reflects a fundamental assumption among pollsters, an assumption that many traditional democratic voters tend to prove true – that certain members of the democratic voting coalition tend to be unreliable when it comes to actually voting. Young liberals, as well as certain ethnic and racial minorities, are not expected to show up on Election Day in numbers that reflect registered voter polling results. Turnout among African-American voters in 2012 was higher than overall voter turnout. But pollsters clearly view that turnout level as anomalous, reflecting enthusiasm among Black people for President Barack Obama. As he won’t be on the ballot on November 8th, pollsters assume a lower African-American turnout and weight their poll results accordingly. As Secretary Clinton, the quintessential establishment candidate, lacks President Obama’s charismatic presence, pollsters assume that young voters will not be as motivated to place voting at the top of their November 8th priorities. Former Arizona Governor Jan Brewer dismissed the impact of Hispanic voters, saying that “they don’t get out and vote”. In short, pollsters view the democratic coalition to be fragile in comparison to republicans. Add to this the impact of third party voting and republican voter suppression efforts and pollster assumptions about Black, Hispanic and millennial voters do not seem unreasonable.

But there is nothing stopping these voters from defying pollster assumptions. Black, Hispanic and young citizens can shake up the polling world, send pollsters back to their analytical drawing boards leave and many political prognosticators scratching their heads. Along the way, they can not only put Secretary Clinton into the White House with a clear governing mandate, they can give democrats a majority in the United States Senate that fundamentally transforms the Supreme Court for a generation and American society beyond the foreseeable future. If the democratic coalition turns out at levels that narrow the difference between registered and likely voters, Secretary Clinton wins in landslides of both the popular vote and the Electoral College. That we here at WokeCitizen endorse such a shakeup should come as no surprise to anyone.

Hillary Clinton For President

Charitably, the presidential debates are over and the 2016 campaign season has moved into its final phase. In spite of clear vulnerabilities, most observers (outside of FauxNews and Brietbart) believe that Secretary Hillary Clinton handily won all three debates against republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. That said, WokeCitizen didn’t need to watch the debates to conclude that Secretary Clinton is the clear choice for president on November 8th. We find it difficult to imagine republicans offering America a worse nominee than Trump and the reason to vote against him far outnumber the reasons to vote for Secretary Clinton. That said, those who view a vote for Secretary Clinton as a choice of the lesser of two evils could not be more wrong. When we at WokeCitizen think about it, we can come up with dozens of reasons that HRC deserves our vote. Here are a few in loose order of importance.

15 – Congressional republicans have admitted that their kangaroo-court hearings over e-mails and the Benghazi attack were pursued primarily to do as much political damage to Hillary Clinton as possible. We think such antics deserve neither the favor of credibility nor reward at the ballot box.

14 – We prefer someone who prepares for important events like debates. Maybe it’s just me, but someone’s approach prior to getting a job is an indicator of their approach once they are on the job.

13 – It’s time. Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the first woman to serve as President of the United States, a long overdue milestone for a nation that is over two and a quarter centuries old.

12 – One of her opponents for office has never won an election outside of her small Massachusetts township. One couldn’t recognize the location of a major Middle East flashpoint and couldn’t name one foreign head of state. One has shown himself to be a virulently bigoted, misogynistic, thoughtless megalomaniac with an alarmingly cavalier attitude toward the use of nuclear weapons. Other than Hillary Clinton, there is no reasonable choice for president.

11 – After 30 years of political attacks ranging from the petty to the menacing, her toughness, resilience and grit cannot be credibly questioned.

10 – After serving as First Lady, the Junior United States Senator from the State of New York and Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton is one of the most prepared and qualified presidential candidates in modern history.

9 – Ask Osama Bin Laden if he thinks that Hillary Clinton will be soft on international terrorism. Oh wait, we can’t ask him because she helped take him out.

8 – She is center-left to progressive in her positions on major issues including tax and fiscal policy, climate change, women’s reproductive health, human rights and education access. While many on the left would argue that she is not progressive enough, the alternative would be far, far worse.

7 – She has worked for decades to expand the availability of affordable healthcare to Americans at every socioeconomic level, with particular focus on children’s access.

6 – Her long-standing working relationships with leaders in the international community were instrumental in building a global sanctions regime that helped bring Iran to the negotiating table on nuclear weapons capability.

5 – She has fought for human rights – particularly for women and LGBT persons – both here in America and on the international stage.

4 – She has a complete understanding of legislative processes and has a history of working in a bi-partisan manner in the execution of legislative priorities.

3 – She has far greater facility with all levers of American foreign policy – negotiation, economic support and sanction, military, etc. – than any of her opponents.

2 – The last time a Clinton was president, America experienced the longest peacetime economic expansion in history, unemployment was below four percent and the federal budget was in surplus.

1 – She is more likely to nominate judges in the mold of Earl Warren, Thurgood Marshall and Ruth Bader Ginsberg and less likely to nominate judges in the mold of William Rehnquist, Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia.

Note that our number one reason to vote for Secretary Clinton is the same most important reason to vote against Donald Trump. The next president will nominate two, if not three judges to the highest court in the land, to render decisions that will impact our lives and those of our children and their descendants. The current republican-appointed majority opened the door to our elections being deluged by special interest money and to New Jim Crow voter suppression efforts in republican-dominated states. These and other travesties must be reversed and personal freedom – regardless of race, religion, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation or physical ability – must be affirmed.

The WokeCitizen supports Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton for President of the United States.

Too Many Reasons To List

We’ve seen enough, haven’t you? Though we will be treated to one more inane spectacle on Wednesday, we can’t imagine hearing anything from any presidential candidate – democrat, republican, libertarian, green, whatever – that would compel me to vote for someone other than Hillary Rodham Clinton. To be frank, we haven’t been undecided about this election since the likelihood of the republican and democratic nominees became apparent. As the Libertarian and Green Party nominees have absolutely zero chance of becoming president and have not proven themselves to be serious candidates, they aren’t worthy of serious consideration in my opinion. This leaves Secretary Clinton, who fortunately is the most qualified candidate by several orders of magnitude, and Donald Trump, for whom the description of less worthy is a euphemism. Actually, any remotely aware people of basic human decency blessed with a requisite compliment of properly-firing brain synapses can be forgiven for considering the possibility of a Trump presidency to be an existential threat to this republic. As we go into the home stretch of this campaign season, I think it important to consider the reasons that a vote for anyone but Hillary Rodham Clinton is a vote for a more precarious American future. Frankly, we have a hundred reasons why the republican nominee should not be allowed anywhere near the White House unescorted. We think that the top 20 are as follows:

20 – His political coalition consists of a significant number of people who are rightly and correctly considered “deplorable” in both perspective and in behavior.

19 – From his attacks on former President Clinton’s infidelity, to his impugning of Secretary Clinton’s veracity, to his agitations over US trade policy, his hypocrisy and duplicity is nothing short of breathtaking.

18 – So many times, in so many ways, he confirms that his quest for the presidency is far more about confirming his greatness than it is about making America great again.

17 – He is proven to be an alarmingly consistent liar, which we cannot expect for him to reform once he takes the oath of office. Indeed, there is an over 70% chance that taking the oath of office would be an act of perfidy on his part given his track record.

16 – His obsessive need to personally attack any and all critics through social media indicates a psychological malady that could impair his ability to function and comport himself properly as president, particularly in foreign policy.

15 – In his attacks on military veterans and their families, he confirms a debilitating lack of understanding of what constitutes strength, heroism and patriotism.

14 – His refusal to make public his income tax returns indicates a high likelihood of significant conflict between his personal interests and those of the majority of Americans.

13 – Contrary to his criticism of foreign-made products and the impact of imported goods on American jobs, he has time and time again purchased and sold foreign-made products in his own business activities.

12 – He has a documented track record of stiffing small businesses.

11 – We can imagine what someone who loses almost a billion dollars of his own money in one year could do to our economy in four years.

10 – His campaign seeks voter support through appeals to fear, resentment and bigotry.

9 – The last time republicans were in control of all three branches of government, they set the stage for a total vapor-lock of global capital markets and the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

8 – As evidenced by his intention to incarcerate a political opponent as would a third world dictator, he either has no working knowledge of the Constitution of the United States of America, or has no intention of acting within its requirements.

7 – His obsequious behavior toward authoritarian foreign “leaders” like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un indicate a dangerous nescience about their threat to global security and attests to his own authoritarian proclivities.

6 – Even if one were to completely discount the allegations of sexual abuse brought to light so far, his well-documented history of misogyny and sexism renders him unfit to propose, assess, implement or advance policies related to the health and well-being of American women.

5 – His disparagement of America’s generals and his claim to know more about ISIS than those generals are indicative of a dangerous combination of profound ignorance and virulent megalomania.

4 – We’ve seen no evidence that he has ever given a tinker’s damn about working people in his 70 years on this earth. Only a galactic moron believes that he will care about working people on November 9th regardless of whether he wins or loses on November 8th.

3 – While advantageous for him personally, economic policy based on tax cuts for America’s most wealthy citizens has already proven to be a failure.

2 – Whether it is management of the legislative process, the formulation and execution of foreign policy, the development, execution and management of fiscal policy, or any other executive branch activity, he not only has no experience whatsoever, he hasn’t bothered to develop a remotely credible understanding of such essential activities. We cannot think of a major party candidate who is, and who proves himself to be, so profoundly unqualified for the office of President of the United States – in modern American history.

1 – The next president will nominate at least two and potentially up to four Supreme Court justices. He already has said that he would select Supreme Court justice nominees in the mold of Antonin Scalia. We want to see the next president select nominees who are closer in judicial perspective to Ruth Bader Ginsberg.

You may have 20 different reasons for doing everything in your power to keep the republican nominee from becoming President of the United States of America and we doubt that we could argue against any of them even if we wanted to. But the fact that you have 20 reasons – or even one really, really good one – should compel you to get yourself to your designated polling place as soon as possible.